IV. The Local Situation

The Economy

The economy of Manitoba is based on agriculture and resource extraction, with relatively large transportation and manufacturing sectors that serve both agriculture and resource extraction. There is also a relatively large aerospace industry and a smaller consumer goods industry, especially in the production of clothing. There is no significant machine tool industry in Manitoba.

The Manitoba economy is not as vulnerable to fluctuations in the agricultural markets as the economy of Saskatchewan and, as a result, it generally weathers periods of recession better. During the past several years Manitoba has enjoyed a relatively lower rate of unemployment than some of its neighbours. However, unemployment statistics can often be deceiving. For example, a good portion of Manitoba's workforce is highly mobile, especially in the mining and construction industries; these workers often migrate to Ontario, Alberta and B.C. to find work when none is available in Manitoba. There has also been a serious and chronic outflow of workers in the health field, as well as in the high-tech sector.

Over the past year or two serious storm clouds have been gathering on the horizon of Manitoba's economy. Both main sectors of the economy are facing dramatically falling commodity prices. Grain prices have hit historic lows, especially when adjusted for inflation. Pork prices have dropped below the cost of production. Mineral prices have also been in a slump. At the same time, there has been no corresponding drop in the price of manufactured goods. Therefore, the Manitoba economy is facing a crunch between falling commodity prices and rising prices for goods that are imported into the province. Sooner or later this is going to express itself in the form of economic crisis.

The effects of free trade and globalization are particularly acute on economies such as Manitoba's. In agriculture there are many producers and few buyers so the buyers, which are some of the largest monopolies in the world, have a decided advantage. Globalization forces the primary producers to compete with producers all over the world, while the buyers they face are often the same corporations. The wealthiest economies in the world - the G-7 countries - are primarily based on manufacturing and control of information and finance. The profits of the huge multinational corporations centred in these countries are enhanced by lower prices for raw materials and agricultural commodities. This is the one thing that these countries can generally agree on in the various trade talks that go on through the World Trade Organization and other forums. As a result, artificially depressed prices for raw materials have been a more or less constant feature of the past two decades and there are no signs that this trend will change in the near future.

Globalization and free trade have also had an effect on Manitoba's manufacturing sector. The production of agricultural implements has become increasingly concentrated, to the point that there are now only two or three huge monopolies controlling the entire international market. A similar situation exists in the production of heavy equipment for construction and mining. As a result, Manitoba's agricultural implement manufacturing sector has been increasingly squeezed out. Versatile is the last such manufacturer in Manitoba and its future is now up in the air as a result of a ruling in the United States concerning a merger between Case and New Holland.

Historically, Manitoba was one of the main transportation centres in Canada, especially in rail transportation. However, the combination of low commodity prices and changing transportation patterns due to free trade has brought the rail sector to the verge of extinction in the province. Both major railways have set their sights on carving out a space for themselves within the lucrative U.S. market and Manitoba has become both expendable and superfluous.

Politics

The anti-social offensive in Manitoba has differed in many respects from that in other provinces, such as Ontario and Alberta. It has tended to be more gradual and less extreme. This, undoubtedly, is in large part a consequence of the history and social fabric of Manitoba. Despite the overwhelming dominance of one urban centre in the life of the province, there is a close interdependence between the urban and rural populations both economically and culturally. Extremes of rich and poor are not as pronounced here as in some other provinces. There is also more of a balance in political tendencies, with urban and northern parts of the province tending to be more socially conscious than southern rural areas. As a result, mainstream politics tends to be based more on compromise than on conflict.

This feature of Manitoba politics was clearly expressed in the recent provincial election. All of the so-called "major" parties - the NDP, PCs and Liberals - had essentially the same platforms and competed on the basis of who could be trusted best to carry it out. This common platform was a study of contradictions. On the one hand all of these parties promised to be "fiscally responsible", which is a euphemism for continuing the anti-social offensive against the people. These promises were aimed at ensuring the support of the corporate interests that control the Manitoba economy. On the other hand, all of them promised to end the anti-social offensive and to increase expenditures on social programs, especially health and education.

The NDP won the election, more by default than by anything else. The government is now faced with the impossible task of reconciling two irreconcilable sets of interests and expectations. How they will perform this juggling act remains to be seen, but in the final analysis there is little doubt which interests will win out.

At the same time, the election of the NDP at this particular juncture in history presents opportunities for the working class and people to make headway in the pursuit of their own interests and their own agenda. In general, the working people and progressive groups and individuals have few illusions about the sincerity of the new government and its commitment to the needs of the people. At the same time they have declared their intention to push their own agendas. The challenge facing the movement at this time is to stick to its own agenda and not allow itself to get diverted and converted into a mere appendage of some political party. It was precisely on this question that the movement in Ontario fell. The movement in Manitoba cannot afford to commit the same error.

The absence of euphoria following the election of the NDP was a good sign that the activists in the movement are not about to lose their heads or their grasp of reality. Now the next step has to be taken to transform the movement itself into an effective instrument of political change, with its own independent agenda and its own program of action. If that can be accomplished during this next period, then the movement will be well positioned to face whatever challenges the future may throw at it.