India and Pakistan Poised for War

Between them, India and Pakistan have lined up a million troops along their border and are poised for yet another war over the disputed territory of Kashmir. The mountainous country was ceded to India by its Maharaja at the time of the partition of India in 1947 between India and Pakistan, despite the fact that its population was predominantly Moslem and opposed to union with India. The territory has been occupied by Indian troops ever since. Pakistan has made numerous attempts to wrest control of Kashmir from India, leading to wars in 1965 and 1971.

Since the 1960s the Kashmiri people have been waging a complex and difficult national liberation struggle against both India and Pakistan with the aim of becoming an independent nation. While Pakistan is currently backing calls for a UN-sponsored referendum to determine the issue, it is apparent that the Pakistani government has no more intention of allowing an independent Kashmir than does the Indian government. Pakistani intelligence agents are suspected of the recent assassination of a pro-independence Kashmiri leader.

The current conflict came to a head as a result of terrorist attacks against Indian targets by groups which are supported by the Pakistani regime and linked to the Pakistani intelligence services. Those attacks, in turn, were in response to a massive military escalation in Kashmir by India in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. India used the opportunity to carry out several massacres in Kashmir, claiming that this was its contribution to U.S. President Bush's "war on terrorism".

Both Indian and Pakistani governments have a history of using the ongoing conflict between the two countries as a pretext to divide and attack opposition movements at home. That clearly appears to be the case at present, as well, as both governments are having difficulties maintaining their rule. Since both countries also possess nuclear weapons and have indicated that they are willing to use them, so the current conflict over Kashmir poses a very serious threat to the people of the region. The United States, Russia and the European Union are all putting intense pressure on the two belligerents to back off from the brink of war, so it is likely that some resolution to the current crisis will be reached. However, a resolution favouring the interests of the Kashmiri people is very unlikely, so future conflicts are virtually guaranteed.