Editorial

The Significance of the Brazilian Elections

On October 27, Luiz "Lula" da Silva became the first worker to be elected president of Brazil. His decisive margin of victory - almost 62 percent of the vote - and the sheer number of Brazilians who voted for him - over 50 million - create new possibilities for the people of Brazil to advance their decades long struggle for national sovereignty and social justice. However, the election victory by Lula and the coalition of socialist and communist parties which supported his candidacy in no way signals the imminent victory of that struggle.

During the months leading up to Brazil's elections the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, as well as an assortment of international financiers, issued dire warnings about a massive flight of capital from Brazil if the people dared to elect Lula president. Now that their warnings have been ignored, they are threatening to withhold about 20 billion dollars in IMF loans unless Lula agrees to support continuing austerity measures and abandons his promises of increased social spending for Brazil's poorest citizens. The international financiers actually have the financial power to reduce the Brazilian economy, the largest economy in Latin America, to ruins if they so desire. This threat severely limits the options open to Lula to implement badly-needed reforms over the next few years, as does the fact that the Left failed to win a majority of the seats in Brazil's national assembly.

In the days following Lula's election victory, spokespersons for the IMF and other financial institutions issued statements assuring investors that Lula had no choice but to capitulate to their demands and that he had already given assurances that he would cooperate with the IMF. Of course, it would have been highly irresponsible of Lula to have precipitated a crisis by immediately challenging the IMF dictate, especially considering that he does not take office until January. However, it remains to be seen whether he will actually agree to play the role of apologist for neo-liberalism adopted by Tony Blair, Gerhard Shroeder and other social democrats around the world. Unlike Britain or Germany, where the most powerful capitalists profit from neo-liberal globalization, many of Brazil's capitalists have also been devastated by neo-liberal policies. In addition, Brazil has extremely active people's movements, including a movement of landless peasants which numbers in the millions.

Therefore, counteracting the enormous pressures on Lula from the international financiers that he should become a salesman of neo-liberalism is the enormous pressure from the Brazilian people that he should oppose neo-liberalism and the dictate of the international financiers. The growing people's movements for sovereignty and social justice throughout Latin America are also a powerful factor favouring the people of Brazil. In Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru the people are increasingly seizing the initiative and neo-liberalism is on the retreat.

Thus, it is true that Lula has limited options; he must either capitulate to the pressure of the IMF and face the wrath of the Brazilian people or side with the people and face the wrath of the IMF and the American imperialists. But Lula is not the only one whose options are limited. Should the IMF make good on its threats to destroy the Brazilian economy if Lula dares to resist its dictate, it would plunge the world economy into another round of financial collapses, thereby triggering yet more social unrest. If it fails to carry through on its threats, then it will send a powerful message to the peoples of the world that neo-liberalism is in decline, just waiting for them to finish it off. The only hope of the financial oligarchs, therefore, is to buy some more time for themselves by engineering a capitulation by Lula under the threat of financial disaster, a military coup or both. It that fails, then the only remaining option open to the Americans is a war which would rapidly spread throughout Latin America, a war which they cannot possibly win.

Complicating matters is the fact that the people of Brazil also have limited options. They have been the victims of the policies of neo-liberalism for almost two decades. Their historic vote on October 27 indicates that they are not prepared to suffer under those policies any longer. Their expectations of their new president are extremely high and they will not take betrayal lightly. If they want to change their situation, and there is every indication that they do, then they have no alternative but to escalate their struggles for sovereignty, democracy and social justice.

The significance of the results of the Brazilian elections is not simply that the candidate of a coalition of progressive parties has come to power, because in many ways actual power is still in the hands of the financial oligarchy. The real significance lies in the fact that the people of Brazil have emerged as a force which can no longer be ignored, a force with its own agenda and its own vision for Brazilian society. Regardless of whether or not Lula's presidency lives up to their expectations, that fact will not change. It is the most significant signal yet that the period of retreat of revolution ushered in by the events of 1989-91 is rapidly drawing to a close.