Commentary

Weapons Inspections and the Escalating Danger of War

The UN weapons inspectors have barely begun their search for alleged weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. On December 7, as required by the Security Council resolution, Iraq released its report on its weapons program. Yet the Bush administration is already talking as if a verdict has already been arrived at and that there is no alternative to war. It also claims to have "intelligence" reports on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and intends to launch attacks on Iraq if that information is not included in the Iraqi report.

The Americans are playing their usual games, first insisting that Iraq provide detailed reports on its entire manufacturing capability, even that of cookie plants and sandal manufacturers, then complaining that Iraq is trying to bury the inspectors with details when that report ended up at 10,000 pages. It appears that the Bush administration had hoped that Iraq would fail to meet the December 8 deadline for disclosure if it demanded a report on literally everything. Now that Iraq has complied, the Bush administration is faced with further delays in its war plans as the report will take weeks to study. Until that process is finished, the U.S. will be unable to claim that Iraq has failed to report on aspects of its weapons program.

However, the Bush administration is attempting to cover all of its bases. Just in case the Iraqis comply with all of the UN demands and the weapons inspectors find no evidence that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction, various high-ranking members of the Bush administration have begun a systematic smear campaign against the weapons inspectors themselves. Charges of incompetency have been levelled against Hans Blix, the head of the inspections team, while accusations of financial improprieties have been levelled against other members of the team. The fact that those members of the team now being attacked were actually chosen at the insistence of the Bush administration has raised questions in many circles about whether the Americans actively sabotaged the weapons inspection process before it even began.

The result of this rather clumsy manoeuvering by the Bush administration is not exactly what the Americans had in mind. Far from solidifying its alliance against Iraq, the blatant American duplicity has damaged support for the U.S., not only amongst Arab countries, but around the world. Public pressure is growing throughout Europe against any involvement in a U.S. war against Iraq. Russia is taking an increasingly anti-war stance, raising the possibility of a Russian veto in the UN Security Council for authorization of a military strike for anything but the most blatant violations of the UN resolution by Iraq.

This is not to say that the Bush administration will be stopped from launching another war against Iraq. When push comes to shove, Russia may capitulate and even Germany may agree to some form of support for the U.S. war effort. Turkey and some of the Arab countries may be bribed into allowing the U.S. to use their territories to stage the attacks. The Bush administration may even temporarily succeed in shoring up its weakening popularity at home. However, the political costs for the Americans will be enormous, both at home and abroad, and whatever temporary gains the Bush administration makes will quickly evaporate.

In a very real sense, the Bush administration has backed itself into a corner and its room to manoeuvre is rapidly shrinking. The U.S. economy is on the verge of a serious recession, if not a depression. If it does not act quickly, the Bush administration may not be in a financial position to go to war, especially without allies to pick up the costs. Moreover, its attempts at international diplomacy have backfired and bought time for the Iraqi regime. It would be an understatement to suggest that this is a U.S. administration with no strategy and very little grasp of tactics. Increasingly, it is being forced to resort to brute force and blatant lies. These are the features of an empire in decline, an empire on the verge of collapse.