Commentary

Is "Old Europe" Making its Move?

For the past 57 years, the politics of Europe has been dominated by the United States. It has exercised this domination through NATO, as well as through economic blackmail of various kinds. However, while the imperialist powers of Europe (especially Germany and France) have been forced to tolerate American interference in their affairs, they have never reconciled themselves with it, and over the years have taken a number of measures to limit the extent of U.S. control.

The first step taken by Germany and France was the establishment of the European Union (EU), which created an economic base rivalling the economic power of the United States. Slowly, but surely, the EU expanded its scope to include European political unity and the creation of a European defence force which is independent of the U.S. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact, the rationale for a continuing U.S. military presence in Europe disappeared and the tensions between U.S. imperialism and French and German imperialism intensified. However, every attempt by the Europeans to dislodge the Americans from Europe has met with a determined and aggressive response from the U.S. government.

It now appears that "old Europe" is making a very serious and concerted effort to rid itself of the American yoke and establish itself on the world stage as an independent economic and military superpower in its own right. The governments of France and Germany, with some support from Russia, have taken a stand against an American war with Iraq, a position which did not appear possible six months ago. This stand, which amounts to a direct challenge to American hegemony, has the potential to destroy NATO and shatter the United Nations. The fact that these governments have dared to take such a stand is a reflection, not only of the deep contradictions between the American and European imperialists, but also of the fact that the Germans and French apparently consider the United States to be too weak to stop them.

It would be naive to suggest that the European powers are taking this stand because they favour world peace. They know full well that the United States will attack Iraq with or without their participation. However, by denying the U.S. the authority of the international community they will ensure that U.S. imperialism is isolated politically and universally hated, while the European imperialists will appear to be on the side of the angels. In fact, the worst possible scenario for the Europeans would be for the U.S. to refrain from attacking Iraq, which would allow it to focus its attention on the threat from Europe. The "old" powers of Europe are extremely experienced; they know that the United States will quite likely become so bogged down in trying to control Iraq that it will be unable to protect its empire elsewhere, leaving them free to consolidate their own imperialist ambitions. They are also acutely aware of the economic vulnerability of the United States and the fact that a long and expensive military campaign in Iraq could destroy the American economy.

It is still possible that U.S. imperialism will prevail and the French and German imperialists will be forced to back down. It may succeed in splitting Russia from Germany and France, which would leave the latter countries very vulnerable in terms of their energy needs. However, the contradictions will continue to fester and will inevitably blow up again in the near future.

The developing split between U.S. and European imperialism is extremely important to the world's people. Intensifying inter-imperialist contradictions represent a great danger to world peace, but, to the extent that they weaken the imperialist system, also creates possibilities for the advance of revolutionary movements around the world. It is a signal that the period of retreat of revolution may be nearing an end.