Commentary

Which Country Will Be Targetted Next?

One of the key lessons we can draw from the U.S. war on Iraq is that the Americans have learned to take advantage of momentum. They took full advantage of their superior military technology and did not give the Iraqi forces any time to think and re-organize. It is highly likely, therefore, that in order to maintain the momentum of their Iraq victory, the Americans will not wait very long before targetting their next victim.

The Bush administration has made it abundantly clear that the wars against Afghanistan and Iraq were merely the opening phase of its "war without end" to achieve global military domination. It has identified a number of countries as its potential victims, including Iran, Syria, North Korea, as well as a number of its current allies, such as Russia, China, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

The ultimate goal of the U.S. imperial scheme is control of Europe, Russia and China, its chief potential rivals. Since last September's declaration of the Bush Doctrine, there has really been no secret about this. The Russians, Chinese and Europeans are certainly not confused on this question, which explains their determined attempt to block the American war on Iraq. However, the Americans are not yet ready financially, militarily or psychologically to openly confront the Russians or Chinese. Since the Korean Peninsula has strategic military importance only at the point of an imminent war with China, it is therefore quite unlikely that the Bush administration is seriously considering war with North Korea at this time. It is far more likely that it will continue with its previous policies designed to weaken North Korea economically and to isolate it politically.

In addition, the United States already has a significant percentage of its military forces in the Middle East. Despite Rumsfeld's boast that the U.S. can fight on two fronts simultaneously, the problems encountered with even the limited resistance put up by the Iraqi army demonstrates the folly of such claims. Therefore, logic suggests that the next target will be in the Middle East. Since the U.S. has demonstrated a coward's propensity to attack weak countries which it can easily defeat, Syria would a more likely target than Iran.

Indeed, this scenario is supported by the propaganda barrage coming out of Washington. Echoing claims made by the Israeli government, which is lobbying strongly for an immediate attack on Syria, the Bush administration has accused Syria of providing sanctuary for high-ranking members of the Iraqi regime, of hiding vast stores of chemical and biological weapons for Iraq and of funnelling arms and fighters to Iraq over the past few weeks. It has also begun attacking Syria for torturing prisoners (after having reportedly sent a number of Taliban prisoners to Syria to be interrogated under torture). It seems that Washington is now preparing to shift back to its "war on terror" propaganda to justify a pre-emptive strike against Syria. Once it can get Syria out of the way, Lebanon would also fall quickly, after which attention would shift towards Iran.

At present, the Arab world is still reeling from the rapidity of the collapse of Baghdad. France, Germany and Russia have been temporarily silenced. The U.S. has 300,000 troops in the region, with another 100,000 reinforcements on the way. It would be extremely expensive and time consuming to send a significant portion of these troops home, only to return them to the region at a later date. All of these factors seem to favour a timetable for a war against Syria within the next few weeks, unless the Syrian government decides to capitulate without a fight. The only factors opposing such a timetable are the current chaos in Iraqi cities and the unstable situation in the Kurdish north, which could draw Turkey into the region to crush the Kurdish aspirations for sovereignty.

It appears that the U.S. has prevailed on the main Kurdish groups to take a low profile and to make some conciliatory gestures towards Turkey. Meanwhile, the American forces are turning a blind eye towards the looting and killing going on in Baghdad. This suggests that they want the situation to deteriorate to the point where the population will accept the imposition of a police force comprised of former members of the Iraqi state. The British have already appointed a brigadier-general of the Iraqi army as the new police chief of Basra. If the Americans can succeed in stabilizing the situation in this manner, thereby freeing up tens of thousands of American troops from security activities in Iraq, there will be little in the way of an advance towards Damascus. The next several days should indicate which way the Americans intend to proceed.