Discussion
Geopolitics in Central and East Asia
In late October and early November, three
meetings took place - one in Moscow, one in Washington, and one in Beijing - that reflect the growing
tension in Central and East Asia. The first was the expanded meeting in Moscow
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The second was the meeting in Washington of the "2 +
2" Japan-US Security Consultation Committee. The third was the tenth regular
meeting in Beijing of the prime ministers of Russia and China.
For the working class and people of all
countries, these meetings are a warning. The imperialists are sharpening their
swords to fight each other and collaborating with one another to suppress the
just struggles of the peoples for their economic, political and social rights.
The end of the bipolar division of the world
that occurred with the collapse of the Soviet Union has been characterized by
an increasing number of civil wars most notably in Asia, Europe and Africa. It
has also been characterized by an increasing belligerency by the remaining
superpower, the United States, including aggressions against Yugoslavia,
Afghanistan and Iraq. Thus, the trend in the world is not towards
"peace". For these reasons, Modern
Communism is presenting the following analysis as a contribution to the
discussion of the emerging trends in the world today.
Moscow
On October 26, 2005 a regular meeting of the council
of the heads of government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) took
place in Moscow. In attendance were the member countries of Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgystan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. For the first
time representatives of SCO observer states India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan
took part in this event. Russian President Vladimir Putin
received the heads of delegations. The communiqué issued by the council stated that
since the previous meeting one year ago "interaction in the SCO framework
had developed a new dynamic, the SCO's international
authority had become much stronger, the international community had been
showing much greater interest in the organization." The council agreed to
step up the development of cooperation on economy and trade, as well as the
improvement of investment climate, placing particular importance and urgency on
establishing cooperation in exploration of oil and gas deposits, construction
of oil and gas pipelines, as well as on interaction in the field of modern
information and telecommunication technology. The communiqué noted the considerable progress
being made on customs cooperation. "It recognized the expediency of
speeding up the process of finalising and signing the
draft Agreement between the SCO member states on cooperation and mutual
assistance in the area of customs by the next meeting."
The SCO was founded on June 15, 2001 by the
six countries. Its member states cover an area of over 30 million square kilometres, or about three-fifths of Eurasia, with a
population of 1.455 billion, or about one quarter of the world's total
population. Its predecessor, known as the Shanghai Five, comprised of China,
Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan, was
established in 1996 on the basis of the "Treaty on Deepening Military
Trust in Border Regions" and the "Treaty on Reduction of Military
Forces in Border Regions". According to its charter the purposes of the SCO
are: "strengthening mutual trust and good-neighbourliness
and friendship among member states; developing their effective cooperation in
political affairs, the economy and trade, science and technology, culture, education,
energy, transportation, environmental protection and other fields; working
together to maintain regional peace, security and stablity;
and promoting the creation of a new international political and economic order
featuring democracy, justice and rationality."
Washington
On October 29, the Japan-US "2+2"
Security Consultation Committee held a meeting in Washington which reached an
agreement on the adjustment of U.S. troops stationed in Japan and the share of
duties between Japan's Self-Defence Forces and US
troops. It released a report entitled "US-Japan Alliance: for Future
Reforms and Regrouping." One aspect of the agreement is to accelerate
Japan-US military integration and enhance joint combat capability. A Japan-US
joint combat command post will be established at the Yokota Airport, where the
U.S. Fifth Air Force headquarters of the U.S. army is now located, and the
aviation headquarters of Japan's Self-Defence Forces
will be moved there. U.S. troop facilities in Japan will now be shared by both countries. A second aspect of the agreement is to shift
some of the U.S. marine corps from Okinawa to Guam to increase the capability
and flexibility of U.S. troops in the area under its jurisdiction from the
Pacific to the Indian ocean. A third aspect of the agreement is to
substantially upgrade Japan's military role in the U.S. Asian strategy. Japan
and the United States will strengthen cooperation in a dozen or so fields such
as anti-aircraft, ballistic missile defence,
anti-proliferation and counter-terrorism. This will allow Japan to upgrade its
military position and role in regional and global military affairs.
Beijing
On November 4, 2005, China and Russia issued a
joint communique in Beijing , pledging to further
their strategic cooperation and partnership in various fields. The communique was signed at the tenth regular meeting between
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao
and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Yefimovich Fradkov. During Fradkov's stay in
China, he met with Chinese President Hu Jintao and reviewed the implementation of the Sino-Russian
Good-Neighbourly Treaty of Friendship and
Cooperation, approved by the heads of the state of the two countries in 2004,
as well as exchanged views on deepening of strategic cooperation, on
strengthening of cooperation in politics, economy, trade, energy, science,
technology and culture, on bilateral relations and other international and
regional issues of common concern. Eleven documents were signed by the two
prime ministers at this meeting. Chinese President Hu
Jintao called for more and better cooperation between
China and Russia in order to enhance their strategic and cooperative
partnership. The two countries agreed to continue the demarcation work in the
remaining section along the eastern border. They affirmed their support for the
Russian and Chinese companies that are working to lay out and build an oil
pipeline from Russia to China, and they encouraged Russian and Chinese oil and
gas companies to carry out cooperation in various forms including joint
ventures in order to advance oil prospecting and processing, and the
implementation of the gas transmission project from eastern Siberia and the Far
East to China. According to Xinhua News the two countries pledged to
strengthen their cooperation in fighting "terrorists, extremists,
separatists, and criminal activities involving transnational organized crime
and the illegal trafficking of arms, drug crimes, organized illegal
migration". The two countries also stressed their determination to push
forward "multipolarization" and
"democratization" in international relations.
US-Japan Alliance
The United States is adjusting its
arrangements with Japan so that Japan's military can play a larger role in U.S.
strategy in east Asia. The United States and a section of Japan's ruling class
would like to restore Japan's military power in the region to ensure that the
US-Japan sphere of influence is protected and expanded. They are threatened by
the rising economic and political influence of China, as well as by the
economic power of the Republic of Korea and its reluctance to blindly follow
U.S. policy with respect to the Democratic Republic of Korea.
Japan's post-war constitution renounced the
use of force and forbade Japan from maintaining a military force. The United
States and Japan subsequently re-interpreted this to allow for a Japanese Self-Defence Force. In 1992 the law was further re-interpreted
to allow Japanese troops to join United Nations and relief work overseas. In
2003 the law was again amended to allow troops to go to "non-combat
zones" in Iraq. This is the first time that Japanese forces have been sent
to a country still in conflict. But the Japanese government's aspirations for
its military do not end there. A draft proposal by the country's ruling Liberal
Democatic Party made a number of proposals including
that their military engage in "collective self-defence-shooting"
to protect their allies as well as themselves.
Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi has provoked the neighbouring Asian peoples
by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. The shrine honours 14 Class-A Japanese war criminals from World War
II, as well as 2.5 million common soldiers, and it is the spiritual pillar of
Japanese militarism. China estimates that 30 million of its citizens were killed
as a result of Japan's military aggression and many more millions of Koreans
and other peoples died as a consequence of Japanese aggression. Koizumi has
made five visits to the shrine since he took office in April 2001, with the
last one being on October 17, 2005. Official protests by China and the Republic
of Korea have been ignored by Prime Minister Koizumi who says his visits are
all made in a private capacity. The former Prime Minister of the Republic of
Korea Kim Dae-jung exposed this logic when he
recommended that Japanese officials, who want to honour
their dead in a "private way",
should visit memorials that do not honour war
criminals.
The United States considers that Asia belongs
to it. Instead of withdrawing its military and other presence from east Asia,
which would contribute to the easing of tensions, it continues to stir up
trouble in order to preserve and expand its influence in the region. At the end
of the Second World War, the United States assumed military control over Japan.
It occupied South Korea, led a brutal aggression against North Korea, and
partitioned the country. Since that time it has opposed and obstructed the
reconciliation and reunification of north and south, and more recently has used
the nuclear issue to threaten the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea.
The United States also intervened in the civil
war in China on the side of Chiang Kai-Shek and the
Kuomintang, established a military base on Taiwan, as well as placed its
Seventh Fleet in the Straits of Taiwan, which effectively divided Taiwan from
the rest of China. Initially the United States openly supported a "two
China" policy, but since 1972 it has paid lip service to a "one
China" policy, even though it has continued to sell arms to Taiwan, openly
supported those forces in Taiwan pushing for political independence and stood
in the way of the peaceful reunification of the province of Taiwan with the
rest of China.
China-Russia Alliance
China considers that "peace and
development" are the main trends in the world, which is to say, that peace
with its neighbours will favour
its economic development. Therefore, China wants good relations with Japan, but
it is unable to reach an agreement with Japan over control of offshore oil and
gas resources. Furthermore, it is vehemently opposed to the revival of Japanese
militarism by Japan's ruling class and
its refusal to condemn the war crimes of Japan against Asian countries.
China also wants good relations with the United States including military
cooperation, but the United States continues to strengthen its military
alliance with Japan and to block the resolution of the Taiwan question.
China considers "hegemonism
and terrorism" as the stumbling block in the way of "peace and
development". It considers that the
hegemonism of the U.S. and Japan is a threat to its security, and has formed a
strategic partnership with Russia. It has helped to establish a new economic,
political and military alliance comprised of six countries in central Asia ,
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), with Russia and China at its
centre, to combat "hegemonism and
terrorism". It is also trying to expand this alliance to include India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan.
All of the member countries of the SCO are confronted with
"separatist" and "secessionist" movements in their
territories. However, instead of addressing the economic, social and political
problems in their countries, they are co-operating with each other to enforce
"law and order". The focus of their attack is on "Islamic
fundamentalism" which they claim is the source of the separatist and
secessionist movements.
China wants a partnership with Russia for two
main reasons. It requires a secure source of oil and gas for its growing
economy. However, it does not want to depend on oil and gas imported along sea
routes because it does not have a strong enough navy to fight the United States
for control of sea routes, nor does it want a conflict with other countries over this issue. Therefore,
next to developing its own oil and gas reserves, it prefers a strategic
partnership with Russia to develop an overland pipeline supply of oil and gas.
Secondly, China wants to equip the People's Liberation Army with the most
advanced military equipment. Both the United
States and the European Union have a blockade in place against China for these
goods. Therefore, China is relying on Russia for this equipment.
For its part, Russia wants to regain the
superpower status that it lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. This is
what it means when it talks about "multipolarization"
and "democratization" of international relations. The United States
and the European Union have not given Russia a significant role in the world
since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is looking for other avenues to regain
that lost status. It considers that the former republics of the Soviet Union,
what it calls its "near abroad",
belong to it. It does not want to lose control of the former republics
in central Asia to the sphere of influence of the United States, as it lost
control in eastern and southern Europe. It also wants to regain the dominant
position it once held in various markets such as India.
Russia views the SCO as an instrument to
maintain its sphere of influence in central Asia, as well as expanding it to
other parts of Asia, including China,
India and Iran, and as a means of strengthening its position internationally in
alliance with China and other emerging regional powers. It is using its wealth
in energy resources, as well as its military industry, to achieve these aims.
Russia is one of the world's most important energy supplier and the second
largest arms exporter after the United States. It is financing its own economic
development by these means and considers China an important market for its oil
and gas, as well as arms.
World Trends
In east Asia, the United States is holding
several lighted matches to the region, one of which is Korea and the other is
Taiwan. If it serves their interests it is not beyond the United States to try
to ignite the flames of war over one or another of these "hot spots".
One can never forget that U.S. imperialism did not hesitate to drop two atomic
bombs on the civilian population of Japan. One can never forget what they did
in Indochina or what they are doing now in Iraq.
If by "peace" the Chinese leaders
mean the progress that China has made in sorting out its border and other
disputes with Russia, India, Vietnam and other of its neighbours,
then it is true to say that China's relations with its neighbours
have been characterized by a growing "peace". If the resolution of
these disputes is on the basis of respect for each other's sovereignty, and is
not aimed at undermining the sovereignty of other countries, then one must
applaud China's efforts in this direction.
If by "peace" the Chinese leaders
mean the convergence of interests among the big powers, or groupings of the big
powers, then this kind of peace means the perpetuation of the old order and
carries within it the seeds of inter-imperialist war. This kind of "peace"
means that the big powers will divide up the world peacefully for a certain
period of time, until one or another of them, or groups of them, tries to
conquer their competitors.
Will Russia, for example, contribute to what
the SCO declares as one of its aims - a new international political and
economic order featuring democracy, justice and rationality? What has changed
in Russia to change it from an imperialist power to a peace-loving country? The
Russia of Putin will not contribute to a new political or economic order, at home or
abroad, that features democracy, justice and rationality. It is a defender of
the old order. Only a Russia under the rule of the workers and farmers will
re-establish a Russia that is not a threat to its neighbours.
The trend in the world is also not towards
"development" that favours the working
class and people. China's "development", for instance, is
characterized by a growth of industrialization, foreign trade and foreign
investment on the basis of opening up of its market to international capital.
In order to satisfy the demands of international capital, and encourage the
development of capitalism in China, the Chinese government has privatized and
restructured its state sector, and changed its laws in various ways, with the
result that hundreds of millions of people are without employment, social
insurance, welfare, health care or access to education. In other words, a broad
anti-social offensive has been underway against the Chinese working class and
people, of the same calibre that capitalist
governments have been carrying out against the people of other countries.
Thus, the trend led by imperialism is
characterized by an anti-social offensive, by inter-imperialist rivalry and
aggression. Another trend led by the working class and people of all countries
is characterized by the struggle against the anti-social offensive, against
aggression and imperialist war, for the all-round renewal of their countries,
and for the democratization of international relations, by overthrowing
imperialism and all exploiting systems, and building socialism and communism.