Editorial
The Changing of
the Guard in the Liberal Party
Following last
weekend’s Liberal leadership convention in
Political commentators have declared that the Dion and Kennedy camps represent the forces of renewal in the Liberal Party, while the Ignatieff and Rae campaigns represented the Chretien and Martin factions that have split the Liberal Party over the past several years. Dion campaigned on a platform of environmentalism and opposed the extension of the Canadian military mission in Afghanistan. He is, therefore, well positioned to present an “alternative” on the two issues that have drawn the most opposition to the Harper Conservative government.
The selection of Dion as Liberal leader is almost certain to exacerbate the inter-monopoly contradictions that have fuelled the political disequilibrium that has characterized the Canadian political scene since the 1993 collapse of the Progressive Conservative Party. During their brief period in office the Harper Conservatives have demonstrated that they, like the Bush Republicans in the U.S., are the representatives of the big oil monopolies and have no interest in compromising those interests with the interests of the manufacturing monopolies. By emphasizing environmental issues, Dion has signalled that he intends to challenge the agenda of the western-based oil monopolies and push the interests of the eastern-based manufacturers. During the run-up to the next federal election, both Harper and Dion will be attempting to line up the economic and political elites in Quebec behind their respective monopoly interests.
Although a lot can happen in the four to six months before the next election, at this time there is no indication that the Quebec monopolies are willing to throw in their lot with either the Alberta oil monopolies or the Ontario manufacturing monopolies. Their economic interests have been well served for several decades by playing off one monopoly group against the other; and the continuing strength of the Bloc Quebecois indicates that they intend to continue with this strategy. There is also no indication at this point of any significant drop in support for the Harper Conservatives in the West - despite their bungling of the softwood lumber dispute and relations with China - nor is there any indication of a groundswell of support for the Conservatives in Ontario or the Maritimes.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the Conservatives will be able to win a majority in the next election. On the other hand, if Dion succeeds in establishing himself as the pro-environment, anti-war candidate he could attract enough NDP voters to win a strong minority or even a majority government. Indeed, it was clear from the speeches of all the leadership hopefuls last weekend that this will be the main strategy of the Liberals to regain power.
It is a virtual certainty that during the next few months Canadians will be asked to ignore their own experience and trust the representatives of one group of monopoly capital to solve the problems being created by another group of monopoly capitalists. Everyone from social activists to trade unionists will urge Canadians to vote for the Liberals as the “lesser evil” and as the only alternative to the pro-Bush policies of the Harper Conservatives. Then, as they have done in the past, the Liberals will pursue virtually identical policies in the name of preserving Canadian sovereignty, protecting the environment and bringing peace to the world. And, once again, the work being carried out by various oppositional movements will be sidelined and dismantled so that no real progress and renewal of society can take place. In the name of renewal Stephane Dion and his Liberals will do everything in their power to block renewal and maintain the status quo.
Of course, the Harper Conservatives represent a very real danger to the Canadian people, but so too do the Liberals and, for that matter, the NDP and the Bloc. While the various parties may represent different sections of monopoly capital, in the final analysis they all represent monopoly capitalism and that is the real source of the danger to the working class and people. Only by rejecting this “good cop – bad cop” routine of the bourgeoisie and taking up the work of building genuine alternatives will the working class and people be able to make any real progress towards renewing Canadian society.