Commentary

Throne Speech Deepens Political Disequilibrium

The Conservative government’s Oct. 16 Throne Speech was in some respects the parliamentary equivalent of a dare – Prime Minister Stephen Harper daring Liberal leader Stephan Dion to bring down the Conservatives’ minority government. Indeed, Harper went so far as to declare that if the Liberals didn’t defeat the government by voting against its Throne Speech, they would be obligated to support any legislation introduced by the Conservatives relating to one of the five priority areas outlined in the speech.

Dion, however, refused to play and instead the Liberals abstained, with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois voting against the speech. Canadians, Dion told reporters, don’t want an election at this time. Still, he said, the Liberals have a number of concerns with the government’s stated priorities, including the extension of the Canadian mission in Afghanistan from 2009 (which most Liberals voted in favour of) to 2011.

The only thing that seems clear is that none of the parties really want an election at this time. This is particularly true for the Liberals, who have basically flat lined in the polls since Dion was elected leader last year. The only ones within the party that have anything to gain from an early election are supporters of failed leadership contender Michael Ignatieff. They’ve been hard at work since the leadership race, undermining Dion by hinting the party is split over his leadership while better positioning their candidate to take over the party after the next federal election.

The Conservatives, for their part, have been unable to capitalize on the Liberal infighting and disorganization. They’ve also remained relatively flat in the polls since the election of their minority government in January 2006, to Harper’s extreme frustration. Their own pollsters are telling them that an election would result in either another minority Conservative government or a minority Liberal government – neither scenario is appealing to Harper, who is desperate for a majority. Following Mulroney’s advice, Harper has tried hard to craft the same alliance of Western and Eastern economic interests that gave Mulroney back to back majorities. While they have made some inroads in rural Quebec, largely through old fashioned pork barreling, the Conservatives have not been able to make any headway in urban Ontario, and have lost significant ground in Atlantic Canada over the Atlantic Accord. They are also vulnerable in some of the seats they currently hold in Western Canada, where many farmers have been angered by their jihad against the Canadian Wheat Board, and where some of their traditional supporters are still reeling from their reversal on the income trust issue.

The NDP have tried to present their victory in a recent Quebec by-election as a sign that the party is poised to make significant gains in the next election but the reality for them will remain the same – an “anyone but Harper” strategy will result in a chunk of the left and labour movement throwing their weight behind the Liberals. One need look no further for evidence than to CAW leader Buzz Hargrove, who openly endorsed Paul Martin during the 2006 election and has now thrown his support behind Dion. They have also, despite various strategic alliances with the Harper Conservatives, been much less successful at having an impact on legislation than they were with the minority Liberal government.

For their part, the BQ are caught in a trap of their own making. Formed following the failure of the Charlottetown Accord as an alliance of disgruntled Quebec Conservative MPs and social democrats, the BQ has campaigned since the early 1990s on the platform of being a much needed strong voice for Quebec in Ottawa while working with the Parti Quebecois to raise support for sovereignty in Quebec. However, the PQ has failed utterly to present a vision for a sovereign Quebec that captures the hearts and minds of the Quebec working class and people. The BQ has been unable to deliver any tangible benefits to Quebecers and that, coupled with Conservative promises to lavish spending in Quebec ridings where they elect MPs is starting to have an impact. The BQ is now panicking that they could fall below 40 seats after the next election, which could mark the beginning of the end for them.

Since the 1993 federal election that saw the demolition of the Progressive Conservatives, the rise of the BQ in Quebec and the Reform Party in Western Canada, not a single party has been able to form a truly national government. The Liberals won three victories under Chretien on the basis of winning Ontario with pockets of Atlantic Canada and Quebec, while being virtually shut out in the west. The Conservatives are now in the opposite position. Their Throne Speech, for the most part vaguely worded platitudes, makes it clear that the Conservatives can’t change this disequilibrium.

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